12/29/98 - Preparing for a quake: Oregon can expect a big one some day -- Insurance is something you buy and then hope you'll never need. In the same way, the added cost of making buildings, bridges and other structures in Oregon capable of withstanding a severe earthquake may not pay off in our lifetimes. But money spent on earthquake preparedness is not wasted. It would be foolish not to make prudent provision for an event that geologists say will occur sometime. 

Until recently, people believed that the Northwest was seismically quiet, unlike, say, Southern California, where earthquake awareness has long been high. But the notion that Oregon is never shaken by major earthquakes is an illusion fostered by white men's recent arrival in the Northwest. The Lewis and Clark expedition reached the Pacific less than 200 years ago. The collective memory of the new culture that has been superimposed on this landscape is too short to have witnessed its longer natural cycles.

Geologists have learned, however, that one of these cycles involves the periodic release of energy built up between two plates of the earth's crust, plates whose seam parallels the Oregon Coast. This seam, called a subduction zone, is the site of a massive earthquake every several centuries. The last one occurred in about 1700. The next one might not hit for another 300 years, or it could come tomorrow. But it will come.

The state Department of Geology and Mineral Industries recently prepared a study of the physical effects of a big subduction zone earthquake. A quake with a magnitude of 8.5 on the Richter scale would kill or injure 6,800 people, cause $11.8 billion in property damage, make 12,400 people homeless and leave 54,000 buildings heavily damaged or destroyed. Transportation systems would suffer $490 million in damage, and 29 percent of communications systems would be disrupted.

Much is omitted from these estimates, including the effect of quake-triggered tsunamis on coastal communities or deaths and injuries caused by the structural failure of unreinforced buildings. The scope of these consequences can't be estimated until more sophisticated modeling techniques are applied. It should also be kept in mind that the magnitude of a subduction zone earthquake could exceed 8.5, amplifying its already fearsome effects. Clearly, a big earthquake of the sort that periodically strikes this part of the world would be the worst disaster in Oregon history.

An earthquake can't be avoided, but the cost in lives and property damage can be minimized. Zoning regulations can prohibit construction in areas most vulnerable to tsunamis or other quake-related damage. Building codes can require that new structures - particularly public buildings such as schools, fire stations and hospitals - be able to withstand a strong earthquake. Wherever feasible, existing buildings and structures such as dams and bridges can be retrofitted to meet seismic standards.

Such preparations add to the cost of construction and block the development of some otherwise desirable land. But it would be foolish to ignore the geological record or to gamble on going for another century without a subduction zone quake. Like the Cascade volcanoes, massive earthquakes are a fact of life in the Northwest. We just haven't lived here long enough to see one yet. We shouldn't behave like a newcomer who arrives in the Willamette Valley in August and concludes that the weather is so dry there's no need to patch the roof. Source: December 29, 1998 Register Guard Editorial.

(Also see: CFF Tsunami Page and Florence inundation map)

But few would hazard a guess about the costs of a killer quake. Now, thanks to a recently completed state study, we have some idea what an 8.5 magnitude quake off the coast would cost Oregonians. Some numbers:
 

$11.8 billion in economic losses, structural and nonstructural, including lost income. 54,000 buildings destroyed or extensively damaged, with 12,400 people needing shelter. 29% of communications systems down.

6,800 deaths and injuries.  $490 million damage to highways and airports. 9.3 million tons of debris.

Most of the predicted damage would be in Western Oregon, with more than half the projected economic losses occurring in coastal counties. “The coast is essentially ground zero,” says John Beaulieu, deputy state geologist. The study was based on a computer model that assumed a “subduction zone” quake, caused by the rupture of two locked-up tectonic plates in an area called the Cascadia subduction zone. The zone is 32 to 70 miles off the coasts of Oregon and Washington.

The study done by Yumei Wang, a geotechnical engineer in the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, assumed a 300-mile-long plate slippage area. “This is the first study that has quantified what’s going to happen in terms that the public can relate to,” Wang says. Her work relied in new software that was developed by a California company at the direction of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Wang emphasizes that the study undoubtedly underestimates the loss of life and property that would result from such a large quake. For example, it doesn’t consider the deaths and damage caused by the tsunami waves -- up to 30 feet high -- that would likely follow such a quake. And the computer model doesn’t consider how unreinforced masonry structures -- largely brick buildings -- would fare. Many of the buildings would probably crumble, typically killing one in five people inside, Wang says. Such details will be included in future studies, and the corresponding predictions will become more accurate, Beaulieu says. And the department is now working on earthquake hazard maps charting quake effects on more than 30 Western Oregon communities, including the Eugene-Springfield area. 

Computer models of tsunami effects already exist, Beaulieu says, but it may be a year or more before that information can be integrated into the earthquake models. Although it’s not perfect, the current study gives Oregonians a valuable broad-brush look at the havoc that would follow a major subduction quake, says Don Hull, state geologist and director of the Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. “It gives the magnitude of the risk we live with and illustrates the importance of preventive measures to reduce these casualties and damages,” he says.

Communities should use the report to pinpoint the kind of structures that will need strengthening to withstand an expected quake, Hull says. Beaulieu adds that the predictions underscore the wisdom of tougher building standards aimed at making new structures more earthquake-resistant. Some changes were made in 1993, and the latest rules affecting construction on the south and central coast took effect in October.

The state plans to publish the entire study in January. Preliminary results are detailed in the current issue of the geology department’s magazine, Oregon Geology. Although the study is certainly sobering, Beaulieu says it also makes clear that such a quake wouldn’t necessarily lead to a “doomsday,” against which people are helpless. “This is manageable if we know what we have and work toward a solution,” he says.

Coos County would be hammered worst by the quake, according to the study. Lisa Wampole, Coos County’s emergency management coordinator, hasn’t seen the report, but she thinks it would help the county carry out its already developed earthquake response plan. Some people might be persuaded by the study to become better prepared for surviving a quake, Wampole says. “It might serve as a wake-up call,” she says. During a subduction quake, the coast would experience the most violent shaking, and some sandy soils in low-lying areas would turn to something like quicksand, Beaulieu says. Some buildings would fall, while others would be knocked off their foundations. Roads would crack and slide, bridges might fall, and utilities would be damaged. “Just a whole array of bad things will happen,” he says.

Moving inland, the severity of the quake would lessen, he says, with shaking in the Willamette Valley probably no worse than quakes that have struck the valley in recent decades. Eastern Oregon would hardly feel anything. The last subduction zone quake hit the coast about 1700; experts believe such quakes occur every 300 to 600 years. That means another one could happen tomorrow, or in a century -- still only an eyeblink in geologic time. Oregon has had fewer earthquakes in the last 200 years than its geology indicates is normal, leading Beaulieu to conclude that quakes could come in unpredictable cycles. “It may be that when the subduction (quake) event goes, it so changes the stress structure of the state that a whole bunch of other faults that have been locked up start to go.” Beaulieu says. Source: Register Guard, December 22, 1998, by Larry Bacon.

(Also see: CFF’s Florence Tsunami Inundation Map)

The report sheds some harsh light on the perception that record economic growth has created a rosier life for all Americans. Among its findings: Nearly three-fourths of our fastest-growing occupations pay less than a livable wage. Worse, almost half pay less than half a livable wage. Further, workers in such jobs routinely face retaliation if they exercise their legal right to organize for better wages and working conditions.

Meanwhile, corporate executives continue to enjoy hefty raises, widening the gap between CEOs and low-level workers. If you ever buy flowers or potting soil from the West 11th Fred Meyer store, you might recognize Slegelis. He's a burly, bespectacled guy with wavy blond hair. His line of work, retail sales, is the third-fastest growing occupation in the country, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It pays, on average, $14,924 a year -- less than half a livable wage.

(The report defines a livable wage as the minimum amount of money required to meet the basic needs of a family of four: $32,185. Such a wage allows for no meals out, no purchase of a home or vehicle, no life insurance, and no savings for a child's college, retirement or a vacation. It falls $16,312 below the median U.S. income for a family of four: $48,497.)

"I am a 49-year-old Vietnam vet," Slegelis says in the report, which also details the stories of workers ranging from a 19-year old New York Dunkin' Donuts cashier to a San Diego caregiver and grandmother. "I make $7.10 an hour." Slegelis is guaranteed 20 hours a week - about $7,500 a year. He's not unique. Many new sales jobs for large retailers don't guarantee a 40-hour work week. "But it is understood that we are all on call when management needs workers," he continues. "I can't get another part-time job because I don't know when Fred Meyer is going to call and ask me to work."

To make ends meet, Slegelis shares a house with six other veterans. "They're good guys who let me pay my rent late if I have to," he continues. "Of course, at 49 years old, I'd rather live in my own place, but it's just not a choice for me right now. I can't afford to buy winter clothes. I can't even afford to shop at the Fred Meyer store I work at."

The other stories of these working but still poor Americans are equally bleak. The Dunkin' Donuts clerk describes sexual harassment from a supervisor at 4 a.m. The caregiver, married to a security guard, prays for a bigger place than the one bedroom apartment where she and her husband are raising a grandchild. 

Not coincidentally, all of the featured workers have been involved in union organizing to improve their wages and working conditions. "Working Hard, Earning Less" was published by the National Priorities Project, an organization that advocates social and economic justice in public policy, and Jobs With Justice, a national campaign for worker rights. The report includes Bureau of National Affairs data showing that unionized workers in fast growing, low paying occupations earn, on average, $2.50 to $5.50 more than their nonunion counterparts.

Like the other featured workers, Slegelis contends that he faced retaliation (such as being scheduled only the minimum 20 hours per week) for his role in helping organize his fellow workers. But his hours have "crept back up" (to 30 last week) since an October election, when employees at the West 11th Fred Meyer voted to become the chain's first non-grocery workers to join the United Food and Commercial Workers Union. The workers begin negotiating their first contract in early 1999.

Meanwhile, the holiday season will be a tough one for Slegelis. He talked to me from a pay phone Monday, cradling hot coffee and trying to warm up during a break from selling Christmas trees in the outdoor garden department on a wet, cold afternoon. His car slid off a snowy road west of Eugene this past weekend, he said. It wasn't damaged, but a $382 tow truck bill is a huge dent in the no-margin-for-error budget. Once again, Slegelis is wondering how he's going to pay his share of the rent. "It's gonna be dicey," he said. Source: Register Guard, December 8, 1998, by Karen McCowan.

(Also see: CFF Newsletter re Fred Meyer)

The federal government is threatening to strip the state of Oregon of its ability to enforce pollution rules because it failed to protect the right of citizen groups to legally challenge the state's decisions. 

The dramatic warning by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency could shift control of Oregon's environmental protections to Washington, D.C., a move that would prove embarrassing and expensive for a state that boasts of its environmental standards. 

The EPA formally warned the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality that it could lose its power to regulate air pollution discharges from large industries. The state's enforcement of water pollution rules also could be affected. 

More importantly, the move could cost the state millions in federal highway funds that are granted because its air pollution program meets EPA standards. 

"It's a pretty rare and serious event for EPA to issue such a threat to take away a program from a state," said Adan Schwartz of the EPA's Seattle office. "The upshot is there are problems with the state of Oregon's program." 

The Oregon DEQ triggered the EPA action when it fought a lawsuit brought against it by Local 290 of the Plumbers and Pipefitters Union. The union sought to challenge the DEQ's issuance of an air pollution permit to the Willamette Industries mill in Albany and air and water pollution permits to the Glenbrook Nickel Co. plant in Riddle. 

The DEQ argued -- and in 1996 the Oregon Supreme Court agreed -- that the union didn't have the legal right to bring the challenge because the organization could not prove it was directly affected by the DEQ's decision to issue the pollution permits. 

The decision reaches far beyond the specific case, however, denying any group in Oregon the right to bring suit against state agencies' regulatory decisions without proving it is directly affected. 

That causes problems for the EPA, which delegated to Oregon the authority to oversee federal environmental programs. The EPA's Schwartz said that the Oregon DEQ ran counter to its agreement with the federal agency when it argued such groups do not have the right to bring legal actions against the state agency. The result, Schwartz said, was that Oregon narrowed the legal rights of its citizens beyond those shared by other U.S. citizens.

The EPA issued a warning to the DEQ on Nov. 30 after three environmental groups -- the Oregon chapter of the Sierra Club, Oregon Trout and the Northwest Environmental Law Center -- brought suit in federal court to force the EPA action against the state. Last week, the EPA filed a formal notice that it could take away the DEQ's power to enforce air quality rules unless the state restores citizen groups' legal rights within two years. 

DEQ Director Langdon Marsh said the formal notice had been expected and will help spur state officials into addressing the problem. "I would speculate there would be support to fix what needs get to fixed," Marsh said. "I don't think it's quite as big an issue as it might appear on the surface." 

The DEQ, with the support of Associated Oregon Industries, the state's biggest business group, has prepared a narrowly drawn bill that speaks only to the agency's air quality permits. "I'm not aware of any great shortage of ability to sue in the state," Marsh said. "I think it would be difficult to get broad-based support for a bill that goes beyond what's needed." 

A lawyer for the environmental groups say a narrow fix would still deny citizen organizations the ability to bring legal actions against the state over other regulatory actions. 

"From a point of view of protecting citizen groups' rights, it was a stupid position for DEQ to take in the first place," said Portland attorney Karl G. Anuta. "It was a win-at-all-costs approach that denies rights to any group, be it the Cattlemen's Association or an environmental group. I don't know why the state would want to perpetuate that unfairness."

Industry groups are hoping to stop the federal takeover of state pollution programs, preferring to deal with Oregon DEQ officials rather than the EPA. John Ledger, a lobbyist for Associated Oregon Industries, said his organization prefers addressing only what the EPA says needs to be fixed. "Everyone agrees something is broken here," Ledger said. "I think the focus is going to be on just what EPA says needs to be fixed at the moment." 

Although the EPA warning applies just to air pollution programs, the federal agency could also take action against Oregon's enforcement of water pollution rules, too. The EPA could hold a hearing by May to see if Oregon's prohibition against citizen lawsuits means the water pollution program should also be taken over by federal regulators. 

EPA's Schwartz said the federal agency has taken such a drastic action before, against Virginia in 1994, after that state also tried to block citizen groups' rights in courts. "Oregon is now facing the same actions against it," Schwartz said. "It's safe to say it's a result that nobody wants." Source: Oregonian Newspaper,, December 9 1998, By Brent Walth.

(Also see: EPA Search Warrant on Florence Sewage Treatment Plant)

At the sparsely attended meeting, Lehman, who is advocating higher gasoline tax to fund highway improvements, was told that the Oregon Department of Transportation should not fund departments such as the Department of Land Conservation and Development. Florence-area resident Dale Saari told the legislator that he feels local control is needed over growth. "DLCD has basically killed the outlet mall," Saari said. "We get nothing but grief from these people who use underhanded tactics."

Lehman agreed a better balance of local and governmental control is needed, but said total local control would not encourage well-planned growth. Bruce Herbert of Westlake said planning goals are focused on the Willamette Valley and not the small coastal communities. He said government focuses on bringing industry to the valley while discouraging it from coming to the coast. Lehman said the Legislature approved tax breaks for industry to locate in economically depressed, rural areas, but no one has taken advantage of the incentive.

Saari said departments like the DLCD and other groups are attempting to "preserve the coast as a quaint fishing village. They don't want us to have tourism here, they don't want a factory outlet mall or Fred Meyer," he said. "I wonder why people in the Legislature don't get together and say 'this has got to end."

Lehman said much control of the coast comes from Washington, D.C., and from the coastal residents themselves. "It's easy to stand out there and point at someone else and say that's the problem," Lehman said. "The biggest problem is ourselves. The constituency is changing dramatically." Source: Coos Bay World, December 4, 1998, by Paul Noel.