Growth.  No Growth.  The mere mention of the topic at social gatherings makes people
uncomfortable.  Everyone is afraid they'll offend their friends if their opinions differ - so no one is
openly discussing the issue.  Local governments all over the state are making decisions based on
emotion, rhetoric, and darn good sales pitches, with little thought to the magnitude of their
decisions.  And planning departments are no better.  They're afraid to tell the public the real facts
- many a planner has lost her job because she tried to tell a group of developers that it would be
cheaper to the city in the long run to just buy a piece of property and turn it into a park.

Right now, the City of Florence is contemplating a $20 million decision, and they don't even
realize it.  It's not that Florence is particularly bad, or irresponsible, or even unusual - it's just that
no one has told them how much things will cost.  This same story has unfolded in city after city
throughout the state.  The characters may be different, but the numbers remain pretty much the
same.

The city of Florence is proposing to add another 173.87 acres to its Urban Growth Boundary -
that's the line drawn outside the city limits which is expected to fill in and become part of the city
within the next 20 years.  You would think that would be a good thing: more people equals more
taxes paid, equals more money to pay for government services.  And you would expect that the
property taxes are set at a level that would ensure that everyone was paying his own way - that any
increase in government services would be offset by the increased taxes.

Not so, says Eben Fodor in his 1998 statistical analysis of the cost to communities in Oregon.
Fodor’s analysis shows a net cost to existing residents of  $33,260 per new home. Florence's year
2020 population projections use a figure of 2.04 people per home, and 4.84 homes per acre.  The
total number of new homes that could be expected in the 173.87 acres would be 841.5.  Under
current city rates, each home could be expected to pay about $3,950 in systems enlargement fees,
which would leave a net cost of $29,310 per home.  Based on Fodor’s statewide figures, the total
cost of increasing the size of the city by 173.87 acres = $24.6 million. Now, I'm not a statistical
wizard, but I thought that seemed a bit much.  So I tried adjusting the figures to more fully reflect
the small community where I live, Florence, population 6,865.

Most newcomers to Florence are retired.  Half of the proposed expansion is around a golf course.
The other half is already developed, and their kids are in Florence's schools anyway.  So there
probably would be less impact on the schools - discounting the $11,809 allocated to school costs
by 50% equals $5,904.

Sewer system costs are a whole other matter here in Florence.  We've just built a new sewer plant
designed to take care of 12,000 people.   The cost for that improvement was spread out over 20
years and some of that cost will be paid by newcomers through systems enlargement fees.
Unfortunately, those fees seldom, if ever, cover the whole cost of the enlargement necessitated by
new growth.  No discount to the $1,660 allotted to sewer system costs.

Next comes costs of building new roads to serve the new areas - $4,430.  One-half of the 173
acres is already served by a small, two lane County road.  If that area of Florence is brought into
the city, it will be the city's responsibility to upgrade the road to accommodate the increase in
growth.  The other half of the acreage will require new roads to access.  More people in the other
one-half to be developed will also mean wider roads, new curbs, drainage, lighting, signage and
traffic signals inside the city.  No discount there.

Now on to water services - $2,729 per house.  Right now, Florence is holding its own during the
summer.  About one-third of its water is purchased from a neighboring water district.  The City is
planning to build a new water well system, which is projected to cost $12 million over the next 20
years - in order to accommodate new growth.  No discount there.

Parks  - $2,915 per house.  Our parks are projected to be insufficient for the size of our
community by the year 2020.  The argument could be made that those retired folks donut use the
parks all that much, and maybe we'll be able to get by with the existing parks we have - especially
considering there are so many state and federal forest lands in the area.  Deduct that cost from the
estimate.

Stormwater Drainage - $483.  Most of the land proposed for inclusion is in the northeast area of
Florence - an area that is infamous for its stormwater flooding problems.  The city is working on a
city-wide stormwater management system.  You can bet that's going to be a big item in the city's
budget, and 173 more acres would be adding to the problems. $483 seems reasonable.

Expanded library and fire protection facilities - $441 and $298.  The library is in pretty good shape right now, but again, the increased retirement population can be expected to put more of a strain on
services than do working families, so that seems to be a legitimate cost.  Fire protection services
have been delegated to the rural fire department, but an increase in the city's share of the service
area will no doubt be reflected in an increase in service rates.  No discounts there.

Last, but not least, electric power and distribution costs - $8,494.  Since the local public utility
district takes care of that, it would be very simple to just ignore the costs.  But each rate payer
living in the city will be paying their share of the net costs associated with the PUD’s additional
equipment needed to serve more people.  Without the city encouraging more houses in the 173
acres, the existing power facilities would be sufficient to serve existing city rate payers.  No
discount.

That leaves us with a locally-adjusted cost to the taxpayers of $24,439 per house.  This figure does not take into account that about half the acreage already has houses on it, so there would be only about one-half of the normal systems enlargement fees going into the city coffers. Net cost to existing taxpayers of adding 173 acres to the city:  $20,553,199.

One comment often comes up in conversation - "all those new people will also be paying city
property taxes, so they really will be paying their fair share".  The only problem with that statement
is that property taxes only pay for “operation and maintenance” of existing government services,
including increased staffing needed, etc.  The $20.5 million cost to taxpayers only deals with “capital” costs - like adding another wing to the library, buying another fire truck, or adding another well to produce drinking water.

Bottom line - local governments need to check out their own bottom line before they expand city
boundaries.

By Debby Todd

Ms. Todd has lived in Florence since 1986, and has participated in many community activities. She is employed as a paralegal, and contributes many of her spare hours to improving the livability of Florence.